Texas Right to Life asked me to speak about my views on the 2016 presidential campaign, and provide some insight and analysis. I did my best to paint a picture of the race, and to walk through a few different plausible scenarios for the outcome of the campaign. It is always difficult to predict political outcomes, even with all the modern polling that we have at our disposal. Ultimately, there are many variables at play, and there is a lot of inherent chaos in national campaigns. The candidates, their campaigns, money, organization, news events, opposition research, social media, and dozens of other factors are all moving at the same time, in different directions. It's hard to know exactly what will happen, but I try to look at things like historical precedents, data, patterns, and even anecdotes to get a sense of where things are moving, and what is likely.
The Iowa caucuses are only a week away, and anything can happen. But it does at least seem clear that on the Republican side, Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are going to fight it out for first and second place, with Marco Rubio coming in third place. And Bernie Sanders does look poised to potentially win Iowa, but the Clintons are starting to hit him hard on the campaign trail. It will probably end up being a close race. Either way, no matter what the outcome, Iowa is merely the beginning of a long. arduous path to the eventual nomination for both the Republicans and the Democrats. We are in for a long year of hard fought campaigns on both sides, and ultimately no one knows for sure what will happen. I guess that is why we have elections, after all. The people will decide, and then we will look back and try to figure out what led to the outcomes of the elections, whatever they will be.